Tag Archives: Great Depression

On foreclosures fraud, QE and coming new spiral of deflationary forces.

There isn’t anyone at the (nominal) helm who didn’t understood from the very git-go that the only possible way out was a resumption of organic credit growth. All the fraud, lies, deceit, corruption and violation of centuries old jurisprudence were justified (at least in their minds) by national security concerns.

The power-elite have always know that there was a black whole comprised of many different elements, one of which being title insurance, related to challenges in re-securitizing the ponzi. More importantly, they knew that they had at most two years in which to blow another bubble, anywhere/any kind, to get the herd moving once again in a speculative fashion.

Financial Crisis is an ‘Inside Job’.

Having now experienced a confirmed Hindenburg Omen in the last week that portends a stock market decline, we may again try to turn our attention to the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. Inside Job is a documentary by Charles Ferguson that unequivocally reveals to us that the GFC was not an accident. Those who benefited from it foremost were all in on it and new full well what they were doing and what it would lead to.

The Marginal Productivity of Debt.

The key to understanding the problem is the marginal productivity of debt, a concept curiously missing from the vocabulary of mainstream economics. Keynesians take comfort in the fact that total debt as a percentage of total GDP is safely below 100 in the United States while it is 100 and perhaps even more in some other countries. However, the significant ratio to watch is additional debt to additional GDP, or the amount of GDP contributed by the creation of $1 in new debt. It is this ratio that determines the quality of debt. Indeed, the higher the ratio, the more successful entrepreneurs are in increasing productivity, which is the only valid justification for going into debt in the first place.

A sure sign of deflation: 9 bailed-out banks report declines in new lending.

As the pool of credit worthy borrowers and worthy inestment projects dwindles in a deflationary environment so the lending declines. It is no surprise that in still democratic USA, unlike the communist China, the Government cant just mandate its banks to lend. It can provide interest free credit lines, it can embark on a massive Qunatitative Easing and public relations campaings, but if banks are scared to lend and the borrowers are not interested in borrowing nothing will get the lending machine going. At least, not until the bad debts are liquidated through defaults, which are, of course, deflationary. And so the lending contracts.

G7’s Sheeple Distraction in IQALUIT, Canada, while Central Bankers Meet Secretly in Australia.

We don’t know what the Central Bankers will be discussing during their secret two day meeting in Australia, but what we know is that you don’t hold a well publicized G7 economic ministers meeting at the same time for no reason. If the CBs need a distraction that means that something is very grave and serious is going on. Whether we are on the verge of a new panic and financial crisis or something else, but it cant be good. Perhaps the sovereign debt issues in Europe are on the verge of causing a big monetary implosion and stock markets collapse.

Porn deflation.

In a punny way of things the pron industry is deflating in unison with the rest of the US economy.

Conquer the crash: Bernanke defeats deflation.

At last, the news reports are now fully brimming with optimism and proclaiming victory after victory on the economic front. Despite the fact that the private (and total) credit in the US economy has been and is still contracting at unprecedented multitrillion dollar annual rate, which is deflation by definition in credit based monetary system, the Bloomberg news declares nevertheless that the honorable manager of the privately owned Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has already defeated deflation. Oh say, can you see …

Sovereign Defaults Coming in Second Stage of the Financial Crisis.

The first stage of the deflationary debt unwind resulted in massive consumer and corporate defaults, particularly in the financial sector. This sector being one and the same as the governments that it controls, the state has thrown all the resources that it had and did not have (pulled them out of thin air) in order to save its Banking sponsors. While it has given the Banks the respite and saved many of them for now from going belly up, it did not solve a thing. The bad debts have simply been transfered to the Central Banks’ balance sheets that are expected to be later transferred to the taxpayers of each and every country. Whatever was not transfered was hidden by suspension of the mark-to-market accounting rules. Thus, the deflation that is not seen has not gone a way, but has been simply hidden.

What deflation will do to future US GDP.

It is now an established fact that Japan has been mired in deflation for the last 18 years. It meant no economic growth as manifested in the below GDP graph. Assuming that USA is now in the early stages of a similar, if not much stronger, deflationary depression, we may be able to project future US GDP growth/contraction based on the Japanes experience.

Deflation is firmly taking root in USA. FED is still in denial.

Even though the signs of deflation are everywhere as expressed in contracting credit, money supply, and prices, the privately owned Federal Reserve’s executives continue to beat about the deflationary bush by referring to it as “disinflation” and talking about it in future tense. It has been happenning already for the past year and a half and it will continue as evidenced by record low long term Treasury yields this week. The below article provides a detailed discussion and solid evidence of deflation and how it works.