Tag Archives: capital flight

Financial Crisis is an ‘Inside Job’.

Having now experienced a confirmed Hindenburg Omen in the last week that portends a stock market decline, we may again try to turn our attention to the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. Inside Job is a documentary by Charles Ferguson that unequivocally reveals to us that the GFC was not an accident. Those who benefited from it foremost were all in on it and new full well what they were doing and what it would lead to.

The Marginal Productivity of Debt.

The key to understanding the problem is the marginal productivity of debt, a concept curiously missing from the vocabulary of mainstream economics. Keynesians take comfort in the fact that total debt as a percentage of total GDP is safely below 100 in the United States while it is 100 and perhaps even more in some other countries. However, the significant ratio to watch is additional debt to additional GDP, or the amount of GDP contributed by the creation of $1 in new debt. It is this ratio that determines the quality of debt. Indeed, the higher the ratio, the more successful entrepreneurs are in increasing productivity, which is the only valid justification for going into debt in the first place.

G7’s Sheeple Distraction in IQALUIT, Canada, while Central Bankers Meet Secretly in Australia.

We don’t know what the Central Bankers will be discussing during their secret two day meeting in Australia, but what we know is that you don’t hold a well publicized G7 economic ministers meeting at the same time for no reason. If the CBs need a distraction that means that something is very grave and serious is going on. Whether we are on the verge of a new panic and financial crisis or something else, but it cant be good. Perhaps the sovereign debt issues in Europe are on the verge of causing a big monetary implosion and stock markets collapse.

Dubai default is DEFLATION.

When a debtor reneges on its loan repayment obligations or asks to postpone them this is deflation by definition. The debts that cannot be repayed are defaulted on and so the total debt outstanding in the economy deflates. And what about prices? The prices on real estate in Dubai are down as much as 50% since the beginning of the world financial crisis. So when debt deflation takes hold assets lose value and cause even more defaults. We say that we are in a deflationary spiral then. When it stops is a big question, but given world wide government intervention in free markets this almost assures that the so much needed adjustment will take a long and painful haul. Yet the prices will get to their natural level in spite of all government actions to support them.

One can hope that the Dubai default situation will give a much needed kick to accelerate the process of deflation and wipe out the speculators and their central bank friends.

Here goes Dubai.

How did the US economy get itself into deflation and why we are going through a deflationary crash.

One important aspect of this mechanism that is seldom mentioned is that the modern debt inflation implies that debt is never payed back and that every year it increases by at least the amount of interest. That means that millions of borrowers simply borrow more to pay off previous principal + interest as dutiful debt slaves they are. That is why debt levels are roughly doubling every decade or so. But what happens when debt growth stops? It is not just that nobody is taking on more debt, the actual principal is being destroyed either via defaults or pay downs. That is, if level of debt is staying constant that means that the principal is actually shrinking by the rate of interest, roughly speaking. This is very deflationary in and of itself. And this is what the privately owned Federal Reserve statistics are showing with regards to most privately held debt in USA. More precisely the consumer and other private debt outstanding is actually shrinking since the beginning of 2009 according the reports that are regularly published by this privately owned Federal Reserve and can be verified on its own website.

Why the private FED and US Government cannot print their way out of deflation.

$20 Trillion dollars, as we now know how to estimate, will take about 20 years to print if the BEP prints $100 bills only at neck breaking pace.

Sweden’s Central Bank Has Gone Mad. Will Charge Banks 0.25% for Deposits.

The minutes from the Executive Board’s monetary policy discussion will be published on 16 July. The decision on the repo rate will apply with effect from Wednesday, 8 July. The deposit rate is at the same time cut to -0.25 per cent and the lending rate to 0.75 per cent.