A sure sign of deflation: 9 bailed-out banks report declines in new lending.


As the pool of credit worthy borrowers and worthy inestment projects dwindles in a deflationary environment so the lending declines. It is no surprise that in still democratic USA, unlike the communist China, the Government cant just mandate its banks to lend. It can provide interest free credit lines, it can embark on a massive Qunatitative Easing and public relations campaings, but if banks are scared to lend and the borrowers are not interested in borrowing nothing will get the lending machine going. At least, not until the bad debts are liquidated through defaults, which are, of course, deflationary. And so the lending contracts. In fact, total private credit outstanding in US economy contracted by some $2 Trillion dollars in 2009 as the latest report from the Fed shows (Flow of Funds Accounts in the United States. Z.1 Release. Flows tables. Section F4. Credit Market Borrowing, All Sectors, by Instrument.  March 11, 2010).

Considers this fresh news on major banks lending patterns:

Associated Press. March 15th, 2010.

9 bailed-out banks report declines in new lending.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Treasury Department said Monday that new lending plummeted in January at the nine largest banks that have yet to repay their taxpayer bailouts.

Treasury’s monthly survey of bank lending shows overall new loan origination dropped 35 percent from December’s level. Treasury says the drop “may be partially explained by large increases” in late 2009.

The survey also shows that average loan balances at the nine banks were 2 percent higher than in December — bringing them to their highest level since September.

The nine banks are: Citigroup Inc., Comerica Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., KeyCorp, Marshall & Ilsley Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Regions Financial Corp. and Suntrust Banks Inc.

Increasing lending to consumers and small businesses was one of Congress’ stated goals when it passed the $700 billion financial bailout in October 2008.

Treasury said this is the last time it will publish a summary analysis of the bank survey because “aggregate month to month changes are no longer meaningful.”

The nine banks surveyed in January held 17 percent of industry assets at the end of 2009. When the survey was first conducted in November 2008, it included the 22 largest banks holding bailout money. Those banks held 61 percent of industry assets.

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3 Comments

  1. Posted March 19, 2010 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    This “fear of deflation” is just a ruse by central banks to keep inflating the money supply. Deflation does not keep people from spending – they always spend what’s necessary. And money NOT “spent” is then saved which means it is credit to someone who invests it for capital goods etc. thus it is again being spent, only not for consumption. Money never lies completely idle to any extent whether there’s inflation, deflation, stability or a solar eclipse. For deflation to seriously happen, not only the current extreme credit expansion by the central banks and states (through “quantitative easing”, stimulus packages, monetising and then spending national debt etc.) but also the money that was released into the economy PRIOR to the collapse would have to be “mopped up” again. This is nowhere to be seen nor would it be technically possible (confiscation aside) so we will rather see inflation than deflation.

    • Posted March 20, 2010 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

      You are missing the point, because your are only looking at money supply. We live in credit based economy where this “money supply” is only a fraction of all the money outstanding.

  2. Posted September 12, 2011 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    i don´t think hes missing the point, hes just being realistic in this countrys economy 🙂


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